The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, as part of its
ongoing climate predictability research, issues climate forecasts
on an experimental basis.
El Niño Archive:
During the major El Niño
event of the winter of 1997-1998,
the routine quarterly Pacific sea surface temperature (SST)
anomaly forecasts were accompanied
by experimental North American regional forecasts of the surface air
temperature and precipitation, as shown below.
Global Atmospheric Model - Forecast for North America:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average
conditions) temperature and precipitation based on information available as of
31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast).
These forecasts are made
using the COLA global atmospheric model with global SST
boundary conditions based on the forecasts described above.
While the forecast is made for the entire globe, a depiction
only for North America is provided. A more complete
description of the forecast procedure and the models used
is provided in an accompanying document .
Global Atmospheric Model - Forecast for the Northern Hemisphere:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average
conditions) 500 hPa geopotential heights based on information available as of
31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast).
These forecasts are made
using the COLA global atmospheric model with global SST
boundary conditions based on the forecasts described above.
A more complete
description of the forecast procedure and the models used
is provided in an accompanying document .
Regional Atmospheric Model - Forecast for North America:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average
conditions) temperature and precipitation based on information available as of
31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast) are provided.
These forecasts are made using the U.S. National Weather
Service Environmental Modeling Center's Eta model for
North America nested in the COLA global atmospheric model
forecasts described above.
Coupled Model - Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly:
- The most recent version of the COLA coupled model - to which no
flux corrections nor anomaly coupling procedures
are applied - has been used to produce an experimental forecast for the
forthcoming 18 months tropical Pacific
sea surface temperature anomalies. Details of this forecast are given
here.
COLA and IGES make no guarantees about and bear no
responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or
timeliness of the images being published on the World Wide
Web. All weather and forecast maps are generated by
COLA from data supplied by the National Centers
for Environmental Prediction of the National Weather Service, NOAA.
The data are the direct product of the
various computer models. They are provided without interpretation or
correction, and do not represent the actual forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. These products are not a substitute for
official forecasts. Likewise, the current weather maps are
not guaranteed to be complete or timely.
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