The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, as part of its ongoing climate predictability research, issues climate forecasts on an experimental basis.
El Ni?o Archive:
During the major El Ni?o event of the winter of 1997-1998, the routine quarterly Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts were accompanied by experimental North American regional forecasts of the surface air temperature and precipitation, as shown below.
Global Atmospheric Model - Forecast for North America:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average conditions) temperature and precipitation based on information available as of 31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast). These forecasts are made using the COLA global atmospheric model with global SST boundary conditions based on the forecasts described above. While the forecast is made for the entire globe, a depiction only for North America is provided. A more complete description of the forecast procedure and the models used is provided in an accompanying document .
Global Atmospheric Model - Forecast for the Northern Hemisphere:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average conditions) 500 hPa geopotential heights based on information available as of 31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast). These forecasts are made using the COLA global atmospheric model with global SST boundary conditions based on the forecasts described above. A more complete description of the forecast procedure and the models used is provided in an accompanying document .
Regional Atmospheric Model - Forecast for North America:
- Forecasts for the winter mean (January - March 1998 average conditions) temperature and precipitation based on information available as of 31 August 1997 (5-7 months lead forecast) are provided. These forecasts are made using the U.S. National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center's Eta model for North America nested in the COLA global atmospheric model forecasts described above.
Coupled Model - Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly:
- The most recent version of the COLA coupled model - to which no flux corrections nor anomaly coupling procedures are applied - has been used to produce an experimental forecast for the forthcoming 18 months tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Details of this forecast are given here.
| COLA and IGES make no guarantees about and bear no responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the images being published on the World Wide Web. All weather and forecast maps are generated by COLA from data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the National Weather Service, NOAA. The data are the direct product of the various computer models. They are provided without interpretation or correction, and do not represent the actual forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. These products are not a substitute for official forecasts. Likewise, the current weather maps are not guaranteed to be complete or timely. |
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